Originally published in January 2024. Last updated on December 16, 2024.
The HVAC industry is gearing up for another year of change. From growing demand for skilled HVAC technicians to new technology innovations, now is the perfect time to fine-tune your game plan.
If you play your cards right, 2025 could be your best year yet, with more profits and growth for your HVAC business.
Whether you run a residential HVAC business or manage a commercial HVAC company, dive into the top trends shaping the industry in 2025—along with actionable advice for success.
Key highlights:
- The global HVAC system market is expected to grow at a rate of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- About 42,500 job openings for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are projected each year.
- Annual spending on HVAC repair and maintenance services is expected to exceed USD 10 billion in 2025.
- Global demand for commercial air conditioning systems is expected to grow at a rate of 7.43% from 2025 to 2030.
- The geothermal heat pump (GHP) market is expected to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2030.
- The HVAC service management software market will grow to USD 1.09 million by 2030.
HVAC market trends
The HVAC market demand is heating up! You can expect big growth in 2025 for both the global and U.S. markets.
Growing market demand in the HVAC industry
Factors like climate change, new construction, evolving technology, and environmental regulations drive strong growth across the industry.
Here are the key market trends to keep tabs on to help you manage your HVAC business in 2025:
- The global HVAC system market is expected to grow at a rate of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- The U.S. HVAC systems market size is expected to grow at a rate of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- Researchers predict a 6.6% growth rate for the HVAC industry from 2024 to 2029.
- The U.S. HVAC industry has about 114,000 businesses and has grown by 2.1% from 2019 to 2024.
Game plan: Refresh your HVAC business strategy
With HVAC market demand increasing, now’s the perfect time to revisit your business strategy. Focus on pinpointing key growth areas where you can innovate and take advantage of new opportunities to stand out from the competition.
For example, as smart HVAC technology becomes more popular, you can consider expanding into this market to capture tech-savvy customers.
HVAC labor trends
The heating and cooling industry is facing a shortage of workers, with many switching careers or retiring. In 2025, the demand for skilled HVAC technicians will keep on climbing.
I registered to be an apprentice and never looked back. I love working as an HVAC technician, I just wish I had tried it sooner. It’s a great career that will challenge you and reward you with a great feeling of accomplishment and of course, the money isn’t bad!
Increase in HVAC labor demand
Here’s how the HVAC labor market is shaping up for 2025:
- Employment for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is expected to grow 9% from 2023 to 2033.
- About 42,500 job openings for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are projected each year.
- Within the next decade, the job market in major U.S. states is expected to grow by 21% in Texas, 20% in New York, and 14% in California.
- The average annual wage for HVAC technicians in the U.S. is $49,535, while HVAC service managers earn about $72,899.
Pro Tip: To keep and attract skilled HVAC technicians, write a good job description, offer fair pay and benefits, provide employee bonuses, and create an environment where employees want to work.
I was 20 when I became a plumber and started Impetus Plumbing & Heating at 23. Today we employ six people and generate more than $1 million in revenue annually.
Game plan: Consider filling open roles with Gen-Z
If you’re an HVAC business owner looking to grow your team, think about hiring younger talent. They bring fresh ideas and tech-savvy skills that can take your HVAC services to the next level.
Jobber surveyed 1,000 U.S.-based high-school and recent post-high-school-aged individuals (18-20) to hear their attitudes about careers in the trades. Here are the results:
- 75% say they want to explore vocational schools that offer paid, on-the-job training.
- 33% believe that trade professionals have more job security than their white-collar counterparts due to advancements in AI and automation.
- Gen Z believes it’s possible to generate more than $1 million in revenue per year by owning an HVAC business.
READ MORE: See the 2024 Blue Collar Report
Are you a Gen Z dreaming of becoming your own boss? Follow these 10 essential steps to start your own HVAC business successfully.
Vocational programs are a great way to get your foot in the door with hands-on experience. My advice is to lean into learning a new skill, do the hard work that’s required, and in the end you become a master at the craft.
HVAC pricing trends
Economic shifts and environmental regulations are leading to ongoing price changes in the HVAC industry. Keep an eye on these pricing impacts to prepare your HVAC business for any challenges ahead.
Phasing out R-410A refrigerants drives up costs
The AIM Act (United States) and ODSHAR (Canada) aim to cut hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) refrigerant production by 85% by 2036. The goal? To move toward refrigerants with a lower environmental impact.
Starting January 1, 2025, refrigerant R410-A will be phased out and replaced with R-32 and R-454B. This will drive up HVAC system prices by 10–15% and increase repair costs for older systems still using this refrigerant.
Game plan: Notify customers of upcoming price changes
Here’s how HVAC service providers can communicate these changes to customers:
- Educate customers about price changes. Let customers know about the new refrigerants and pricing impacts through a price letter increase.
- Highlight the benefits to customers. Explain how upgrading their HVAC units can save them money in the long run, like lowering energy bills or reducing environmental impact.
- Inform and train your team. Keep everyone updated about these changes and ensure you and your team are trained to install and maintain the new systems.
- Offer financing options. To help customers manage the rising costs of equipment and installation, let them pay in installments with consumer financing.
HVAC customer spending trends
After dealing with high inflation rates in 2024, both residential and commercial HVAC spending is set to increase as we head into the new year.
Increased residential spending on HVAC services
The residential market offers plenty of opportunities for HVAC contractors in 2025:
- Spending for home improvements and repairs is set to expand to USD 477 billion by late 2025.
- About 23% of U.S. adults plan to buy a home in 2025, showing a strong potential customer base for residential HVAC installations.
- The home renovation and maintenance sector will grow by 1.2% through late 2025.
- Real disposable income adjusted for inflation, stabilizing at about 3% in late 2024. This gives households more flexibility to spend on upgrades.
- The aging housing stock means homeowners prioritize upgrades, such as HVAC installations.
New tax incentives for homeowners who install HVAC systems
Did you know U.S. homeowners can receive a tax credit of up to $2,000 for installing qualifying heat pumps? The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act promises tax credits to homeowners who purchase energy-efficient HVAC equipment.
HVAC customers might also qualify for:
- Rebates or tax credits for installing energy-efficient equipment.
- Reduced property taxes for buildings that meet sustainable building standards.
- Tax deductions for using renewable energy sources.
Growing commercial HVAC market
The expansion of commercial spaces in the U.S., including malls, offices, and airports, is boosting commercial HVAC sales:
- The U.S. commercial construction market is expected to hit USD 203.50 billion by 2029.
- Global demand for commercial air conditioning systems is expected to grow at a rate of 7.43% from 2025 to 2030.
Stricter energy efficiency standards are also pushing businesses to upgrade or replace their HVAC systems. This trend creates more growth opportunities in the commercial market as businesses reinvest in equipment that meets these new requirements.
Game plan: Upgrade your HVAC marketing strategy with educational content
Make educational content a key part of your marketing strategy to build customer trust and stand out.
Here are a few tactics you can use:
- Describe the benefits in your service description. If you install energy-efficient HVAC systems, explain how they can lower both utility bills and energy consumption.
- Offer helpful resources on your website. Include links on your website to government rebate programs for HVAC systems and create blog articles with valuable tips and industry insights.
- Share helpful content on social media. Connect with your audience through tips, facts, and advice. Topics like energy-saving tips or seasonal maintenance reminders can keep your business top-of-mind.
HVAC repair and maintenance spending is on track to grow
With more HVAC installations in 2025, here’s what HVAC contractors can expect for repair and maintenance services:
- Annual spending on HVAC repair and maintenance services is projected to exceed USD 10 billion in 2025.
- The national average cost for HVAC repairs in the U.S. will be around $350 in 2025. Minor repairs like replacing an air filter will be as low as $75, while complex repairs like compressor replacements could go up to $3,000.
- In 2025, the national average cost of HVAC maintenance in the U.S. will range from $85 to $170.
Game plan: Be transparent about product and service costs
Communication is king when outlining your services to potential customers. Break down the repair or maintenance process step-by-step, and make sure your pricing is crystal clear.
One way is to walk your customers through what’s included in the service and provide regular updates (in case unexpected costs pop up throughout). You can also offer a service warranty to build customer trust and give them more peace of mind.
HVAC technology trends
Energy efficiency and cost savings are shaping the HVAC industry. Here are five trends HVAC technicians and business owners should keep on their radar:
- Transition to eco-friendly refrigerants. These new refrigerants are better for the planet and have lower global warming potential, lining up with efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
- Growing indoor air quality (IAQ) solutions. People spend about 90% of their time indoors, so systems like advanced filters and air purifiers are in high demand to keep indoor spaces clean and healthy.
- Installing more heat pumps in colder regions. Heat pumps are gaining traction as they’re energy-efficient, eco-friendly, and a good step toward greener heating and cooling options.
- Increased use of predictive maintenance. Predictive maintenance uses AI and machine learning to detect early signs of potential system failures. This helps reduce downtime and maintenance costs.
- Ductless HVAC systems are on the rise. Installing and maintaining ducts can be costly and inconvenient, especially in older or new buildings. A ductless system will be a better way to heat and cool spaces as it’s more efficient, easy to install, and cost-effective.
Game plan: Find ways to offer more value to customers
Use upcoming technology trends as an opportunity to enhance your own services.
For example, if you service colder climate areas, it might be worth researching heat pumps and offering them if you don’t already. This can position your business as a leader in meeting modern customer expectations and even open up new revenue streams.
Smart HVAC technology is taking off
Smart HVAC technologies, like smart thermostats, are gaining traction because of new environmental regulations and a focus on reducing energy consumption.
Homeowners who can afford a new HVAC system are spending more on smart HVAC systems than before. 57% of U.S. consumers are already expected to adopt smart home technology by 2025.
Millennials and Gen Z are more likely to include smart technology in their homes, compared to older generations. Around 75% of smart home consumers are under the age of 55, with 40% aged between 18 and 34.
Game plan: Educate older customers about the benefits of a smart HVAC system
Help older customers see the value of a smart HVAC system by educating them during site visits and through email marketing. By explaining these advantages, you can help them feel more confident and excited about upgrading to smarter technology.
For example, highlight how a smart thermostat can make heating and cooling their home easier, improve indoor air quality, and save them up to 8% on utility bills.
Geothermal heat pumps are gaining popularity
Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) are becoming more common in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. GHPs stand out because they provide heating and cooling from a single, energy-efficient system. This makes them appealing to cost-conscious customers looking to cut down on their energy bills.
With growing demand for closed-loop geothermal HVAC systems, the GHP market is expected to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2030.
Game plan: Boost awareness about geothermal HVAC systems
Share educational content to increase awareness of geothermal energy. It can also encourage more residents and businesses to adopt geothermal HVAC systems.
For example, add FAQs or share detailed blog articles to your HVAC website about the long-term benefits of GHPs. Key topics you can cover may include green technology, energy efficiency, and cost savings.
HVAC software trends
As energy efficiency and green technology gain popularity, investing in service management solutions has become a smart move.
As a young business owner, I have a significant advantage over my competitors because I’ve embraced technology to automate the backend of the business, which allows me to focus on getting jobs done.
More HVAC businesses adopt service management software
Many businesses are turning to HVAC apps and software to enhance their services, training, sales and marketing, and customer service.
The HVAC service management software market will grow to USD 1.09 million by 2030, growing at a rate of 6.68%.
Game plan: Operate your business with HVAC software
Want to hop on the software trend? Use HVAC business software like Jobber to streamline scheduling and dispatching, improve customer service and communication, simplify estimates and invoicing, offer flexible payment options, and track key metrics.
See how Guest Plumbing and Heating uses Jobber to run a successful HVAC business:
Stay ahead of the HVAC trends
By staying on top of these industry trends, HVAC business owners and technicians can:
- Update service offerings to meet changing customer needs and expectations.
- Attract and keep the right skilled workers to grow the business.
- Update pricing strategy to stay competitive and protect business profits.
- Adopt smart HVAC technology to meet environmental regulations and demand for energy efficiency.
- Use HVAC apps and software to streamline business management, training, and customer service.